The Athletics World Records That Will Be Broken Next- Top 10

  1. Men’s 100m, WR (prior to 2009): 9.69s, Usian Bolt Jamaica, Set in 2008, 2009 best 9.58s, 2009 best compared to WR: 101.1%
  2. Men’s 200m, WR (prior to 2009): 19.30s, Usain Bolt Jamaica, Set in 2008, 2009 best 19.19s, 2009 best compared to WR: 100.6%
  3. Women’s Hammer, WR(prior to 2009): 77.80m,Tatyana Lysenko Russia, Set in 2006, 2009 best 77.96, 2009 best compared to WR: 100.2% 
  4. Women’s Pole Vault, WR (prior to 2009): 5.05m, Elena Isinbaeva Russia, Set in 2008, 2009 best 5.06m, 2009 best compared to WR: 100.2%
  5. Women’s 400m Hurdles, WR 52.34s, Yuliya Pechenkina Russia, Set in 2003, 2009 best 52.42, 2009 best compared to WR: 99.85%
  6. Men’s Marathon, WR 2:03:59, Haile Gebrselassie Ethiopia, Set in 2008, 2009 best 2:04:27, 2009 best compared to WR: 99.63%
  7. Women’s High Jump, WR 2.09m, Stefka Kostadinova Bulgaria, Set in 1987, 2009 best 2.08m, 2009 best compared to WR: 99.52%
  8. Women’s 4x100m Relay, WR 41.37s, Germany, Set in 1985, 2009 best 41.58s, 2009 best compared to WR: 99.49%
  9. Men’s 4x100m Relay, WR 37.10s, Jamaica, Set in 2008, 2009 best 37.31s, 2009 best compared to WR: 99.44%
  10. Men’s Steeplechase, WR 7:53.63, Saif Saaeed Shaheen Qatar, 2009 best 7:58.85, 2009 best compared to WR: 98.91%

 

The purpose of this list was to statistically predict the next athletics World Records that will fall. Number 1 denotes the World Record that is most likely to fall the soonest. The list doesn’t take into account several key factors. These include when the ‘2009 best performance athlete’ is likely to peak eg for Olympics or World Championships. Also the age of the athlete recording the World’s best 2009 time. If the athlete was passing the optimal performance age for their specific event, it would affect the likelihood of that event’s World Record being broken.

The above list is ranked based upon the 2009 best performance for a specific event compared to the World Record for that same event. For instance if an athlete has come very close to the World Record mark from January to September 2009, their event will be up higher on the list (closer to the number 1 position.) If no athlete has come close to the World Record for their event, from January to September 2009, then that event will not likely be on the list.

It  must be noted that the Men’s and Women’s 20km walk would also be included on the list however the IAAF has not ratified certain walking events as official in which fast times have been recorded. This is due to a lack of International judged being present at the corresponding events.

I suspect that by the conclusion of the London 2012 Olympics, over 6 of the above World Records will no longer stand.

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